Evan Engram’s Final Year in Jacksonville?

JT: It isn’t what anyone originally wanted

Nobody wanted this after the magical playoff run last season. The problem is, for whatever reason, no matter who is/was at fault, TE Evan Engram and the Jacksonville Jaguars could not reach an agreement and thus no long term contract exists keeping Engram in JAX after he plays out his franchise tag year. Could the Jaguars make Engram the next Kirk Cousins and franchise him 100 years in a row as the Washington Redskins did their quarterback? Possibly, but not probable. What is much more likely is that Trent Baalke and Doug Pederson take a younger and cheaper tight end in this up-coming, tight end rich, 2023 draft. But even that depends on a few factors.

First, since this is pure conjecture and we have absolutely no idea where Baalke’s head is at when it comes to this years draft, we can honestly say that we are talking out of our ass. But how is that any different from what everyone else is doing right now in JAX? Nobody knows anything. I don’t think even the powers that be know what they are going to do, and that’s because outside factors will determine the route Pederson and Baalke take while drafting. For this reason they need to have several scenarios in order, several game plans to follow, contingencies for contingencies, if you will. What is that military saying that I’m probably going to butcher to all hell? Your perfect plan goes out the window once the shooting starts??? Something like that. Factors out of Baalke’s control will determine which strategy the Jaguars pursue.

If their is no run on tight ends prior to the Jaguars 24th pick, then it might make sense for Jacksonville to select Utah’s Dalton Kincaid. He is an excellent pass catcher, a more than adequate blocker, and another big weapon for Lawrence. He can work under Engram’s tutelage to learn the ropes and he will cost much less over the next several years than Evan Engram. If we are being honest, with the addition of Calvin Ridley, every Jaguars receiver’s job has diminished quite a bit, and that includes Engram. He just isn’t as important as he was last year. Because of this, it makes no sense to pay him millions, against the cap, with a new contract when JAX can draft a tight end that will be just as capable and productive in the Jaguars new group of pass catchers. Kincaid will cost a lot less money and he’s a lot younger. If a top tight end is still on the board at 24, I would draft him. Maybe this is why I am not an NFL GM, or maybe this is why I should be. Still waiting for that call Shad.

A couple wrenches could be thrown into scenario one causing some chaos. Engram and the Jaguars could reach a long term deal before the draft. This is highly unlikely in my opinion. If they do however, then scenario one was never on Baalke’s radar. I frankly think, though, that both Baalke and Pederson, for cap and money reasons only, really like the above idea. The other monkey sized wrench that could blow up this scenario is if a tight end run occurs before pick 24. Stranger things have happened. We have all been a part of fantasy drafts where runs happen with positions many rounds before they should. There was always someone who would take Sebastian Janikowski in the second round thus starting a ridiculous run on place kickers. Before you knew it Vinatieri was gone, then (in later years) Justin Tucker (who still to this day is taken way too high in fantasy drafts). These are the only two reasons Jacksonville does not take a tight end in the first round. Frankly, I don’t see either of those wrenches being thrown and therefore JAX, in my humble, meaningless, opinion will be drafting a highly talented TE with their number one pick.

Originally I thought they would be taking a cornerback and then I thought they would be taking an offensive lineman or an edge rusher. A few things have happened that have changed my mind. Want to know what? I’m going to tell you either way. Look, everyone I originally thought the Jaguars would take at 24 seems to be dropping in the draft, and/or the number of players for each position seems be multiplying. I’m almost convinced that the Jags could trade down in the draft and still get Deonte Banks (Maryland) or maybe even Brian Branch (Alabama). And if not, there is Tyrique Stevenson (Miami), Devon Witherspoon (Illinois), Christian Gonzalez (Oregon), JPJ (Penn State) and the list goes on and on. Now I realize some of these guys are first rounders but not all of them will be. Jacksonville can, for sure, improve their CB room in the second or third round without too much loss in production (imo). Face it, there is no Sauce Gardner this year. This group of DBs are much closer in talent and therefore, dare we say, somewhat interchangeable.

We also think there are plenty of offensive linemen in this draft as well. Skoronski (NW), PJJ (Ohio State), O’Cyrus Torrence (Florida), Broderick Jones (Georgia). The Jags could grab an OL that would definitely improve their depth, and possibly starting rotation, well after round one. Another position that Jacksonville needs to fill is that of edge rusher, or is it? We don’t really know. Will Travon Walker become what he was drafted to be last year? Now that we know what he can do when he puts a hand in the dirt, that’ll, hopefully, translate to a higher sack total. Will Josh Allen step up and turn his excellent QB rush stats into QB sacks in 2023? Or, will they both play mediocre football thus forcing the need to add a true edge rusher this year? Speaking of which, there are also a plethora of good edge rushers in this draft. Will Anderson Jr (Alabama) certainly won’t be around at 24, but Myles Murphy (Clemson), Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech), Nolan Smith (Georgia), Lukas Van Ness (Iowa), etc… very well might be.

So where does all of this leave us? JaguarsTalk breaks it down like this: If Dalton Kincaid (Utah) is available at #24 and Evan Engram is not signed to a long term deal by draft day then that should certainly be the Jags pick. Edge, CB, and OL will all be available later. If Kincaid is not around then I’m thinking of getting on board the trade train. Trade away the 24 and drop a few picks (not too many) in order to gain a lower first and an extra second rounder. This way the Jags will get a very solid Edge, OL and CB (with their first three picks), all with starting talent. This will be a very telling draft when it comes to just how masterclass Trent Baalke has truly become.

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