Jaguars @ Colts: Round 2

JT: Trevor Lawrence and the run first(?), run more(?), will it even matter, Jaguars travel to Indy

This one, ladies and gentlemen, has a different feel to it. This time, in week six, both the Indianapolis Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars have their backs against the wall. This is a deciding game for the future of both teams. Yes, it is only week six of seventeen. For the Jags, however, a record of 2-4 with losses to the Texans and Colts would be drastically difficult to recover from in the AFC South. For Indianapolis, this was supposed to be their year to make it deep into the playoffs. The move to put Matt Ryan under center and ship Carson Wentz to Washington was supposed to be the magic bean. This was the move to get Indy up the beanstalk to the promised land. But Indianapolis has not shown up as expected this season and they sit at 2-2-1. The Titans are currently sitting in first place at 3-2. The Colts are in second at 2-2-1. The Jags are close behind at 2-3, and the Texans sit at 1-3-1. This is an extremely pivotal game in the division. Both the Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans have bye weeks this week and when they come back, the Titans play the Colts and the Texans play the Raiders. The following week they play each other. So this week, this game against Indianapolis is a huge chance to move up in the division. A win on Sunday could put the Jaguars in excellent position to take back first place, and create separation within the AFC South. More importantly, a loss for Jacksonville this week could send the team into a downward spiral from which it would be very difficult to recover.

So how does Jacksonville win this game? By scoring more points. Thank you, goodnight. In reality, this game will be more difficult for the Jaguars than week two. Jonathan Taylor practiced in a limited fashion on Thursday opening the door for a probable return to the field this Sunday. Safety Julian Blackmon was a full participant and thus will play Sunday. Defensive End Kwity Paye has an ankle injury that will keep him out of the Jaguars game. Linebacker Shaq Leonard was a DNP on Thursday with a multitude of injuries, a concussion, broken nose, and back issues, and will not play. The Colts center, Ryan Kelly was a limited participant on Thursday, greenlighting his probable return on Sunday, while CB Stephon Gilmore and Yannick Ngakoue are both set to suit up against the Jags. So what does all this mean? To summarize, the Colts have their top two receivers playing in week six. In week two, Matty Ice was missing both Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce. If Jonathan Taylor is able to suit up then Ryan will have all major weapons at his disposal. On defense, however, the Colts will be missing linebacker Shaquille Leonard and that absence will be felt. The Colts are a better team than they were in week two, both in terms of available personnel and winning momentum. Indianapolis has beaten the Kansas City Chiefs 20-17 (I know, right? Boggles the mind) and most recently the Denver Broncos 12-9 in an extremely exciting (insert sarcasm here) field goal bonanza. Their wins have been ugly and close, but they were wins nonetheless. They are starting to believe that week two was a fluke and that belief is dangerous for the Jaguars.

After their loss to the Texans, the Jaguars have a lot to prove to themselves. Forget all of the outside noise. Forget the socials and all of “us” out here squawking like we know how to solve the world’s football problems. Though we can tell you with great accuracy that getting rid of Dan Snyder would be a phenomenally great move for the Washington organization and all of their fans. Great, now I’m on his “hit” list right next to Jerry Jones. All the Jags need to worry about is proving to themselves that they are as good as they know they can be. This is truly a game about pride. It won’t hurt that Foley Fatukasi is back this week to help stop the run and that JAX won’t miss a beat with Tyler Shatley at guard instead of Ben Bartch. The key to offensive success for the Jaguars is to get rid of the ball quickly, accurately, and efficiently. Check downs and short passes will be necessary. Screens and crossing routes as well as splitting Etienne out wide and getting him involved in a mismatch will help to build Trevor Lawrence’s confidence. When Jacksonville gets ahead, Trevor settles in but if we have to play from behind, Lawrence tends to get flustered. What will help Lawrence play from in front and not from behind, is the JAX defense. If Oluokun, Fatukasi, and DaVon Hamilton (all currently questionable) can play on Sunday then Lawrence has a very good opportunity to put points on the board before Indianapolis is able. The aforementioned, along with Walker, Allen and Lloyd will pressure Matt Ryan relentlessly. Jacksonville put Matt Ryan to turf five times in week two. I foresee the anger and frustration caused by the Houston loss bubbling to the top and being taken out on the Indy O-line. This does not bode well for their immobile 37 year old quarterback. I am calling double digit sacks for our defense on Sunday, as well as holding Jonathan Taylor, or whomever starts, to under 100 yards rushing. This relentless pressure is sure to lead to an interception AND a QB fumble. Hopefully Cisco has been working with LLoyd on how to return takeaways to the house.

Flipping back to the offensive side of the ball. Christian Kirk will leave the WITSEC program to once again become a Jaguars wide receiver. We are projecting a big game from Kirk. 100 yards receiving with a touchdown wouldn’t be out of the question. I would like to say that I foresee James Robinson having a big game as well but, alas it seems to us that Doug Pederson has ushered in a changing of the guard. Travis Etienne will be the Jaguars new number one from this game forward. ETN has an explosive aspect and a top speed that just doesn’t seem to be part of J-Rob’s repertoire. That is not to say he won’t have an important part to play. The Jaguars will need a hard nosed rusher for short yardage plays and goal line situations, if JAX…You know what, let’s turn a new leaf. WHEN JAX starts running the ball more (I have faith that everything will get worked out as far as play calling is concerned). Trevor Lawrence has been spoken about exhaustively on every corner of the Jacksonville interwebs but we will touch on his play here, again. Like we stated above, he just needs to relax and settle into the game. Lawrence has yet to fully develop his killer instinct when the team’s back is against the wall and they need to come back from a deficit. I say “fully” because he did display that ability, to an extent, in the Washington game but he just doesn’t ever seem to have enough in him for the end of the game two minute drills. At least not yet. When it comes to quarterback development though, I will defer to Doug Pederson, the two time Super Bowl champion. If you haven’t already, check out the JagsCast Podcast covering this game for more information. 

The unabashed, unafraid, often dead-on accurate, but never quite correct, JaguarsTalk Jacksonville Jaguars/Indianapolis Colts matchup final score prediction….31-17 Jaguars. Let us know what you fine folks think in the comment section below.