Jaguars - Texans Predictions
JT: A return to complementary football
I am aware that the Houston Texans are coming to Jacksonville this week. I am also aware that the Jaguars haven’t beaten the Texans in something like eight games. Also, we are aware that Davis Mills’ lone career road win was at The Bank in JAX. I am mostly aware that none of this matters. The Texans’ rookie running back out of UF, Dameon Pierce, is literally the only bright spot for Houston. The Jacksonville Jaguars led the NFL in run defense prior to week 4 against Philly, and even now, after the debacle at The Linc, where the Eagles rushed for over 200 yards, the Jags are still ranked 8th in the NFL against the run. Houston’s quarterback Davis Mills provides no real threat to run the ball. The Houston offense does not run the RPO like Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Go see Dan Orlovsky break down Hurts and the Eagles RPO and why it was so difficult for the Jags (or anyone) to defend - well worth your time. All of this to say, if the Jags stay in their lanes and fill their gaps (which they will), then Dameon Pierce becomes a non-factor in this game.
PREDICTION: Davis Mills loses on the road and the Houston Texans winning streak against Jacksonville comes to an end.
The only bright spot on the Houston Texans defense, is defensive back Derek Stingley Jr.. Stingley is a little banged up coming into this game against Jacksonville, which isn’t ideal for either team. It will allow the Jags haters to provide another excuse as to why Jacksonville won. They did it with the Colts when Pittman was out and against the Chargers when Herbert was wounded. Bottom line is that nobody, not even the Eagles, have been able to cover the Jaguars wide receivers. There is always someone open. As long as the drops are out of their system, the Jags WRs are going to have a field day at The Bank against Houston.
PREDICTION: Christian Kirk will have two touchdowns this Sunday.
How is Houston’s run defense? Have we talked about this yet? Every single time the Houston Texans have taken the field this year the opposing running back has had a season rushing high. On average, the Texans give up 172 rushing yards per game. Does Houston even have a run defense? Folks, if Jaguars Head Coach Doug Pederson, after calling an embarrassingly low amount of run plays last week, in a tropical depression when receivers were dropping passes all over the field, does not take full advantage of Houston’s horrible rush defense by feeding the backfield dogs the ball over and over again, then I will be severely surprised and disappointed, and I will never end this run-on sentence.
PREDICTION: James Robinson AND Travis Etienne Jr. rush for over 100 yards EACH. J-Rob snags a rushing and a receiving touchdown. ETN may even snag himself a touchdown this week, in addition to breaking a huge running play.
The Jaguars defense is one of the best in the NFL in takeaways. That will continue this Sunday. Jacksonville’s offense put their defense in horrible situations against Philadelphia. Minus the lack of discipline to stay at home and fill their gaps, Jacksonville’s defense played extremely well. Both losses this year were by a single score. The Jacksonville defense is for real folks. This Sunday they will be hungry to show they learned from their Philly mistakes. Houston will feel the brunt of an angry pack of dogs. Josh Allen will have a career game. Travon Walker will re-introduce his name to announcers, since it hasn’t been called in awhile. Both of those guys will combine to sack Houston QB Davis Mills somewhere in the double digits. Brandin Cooks will be shut down all game long much like Michael Pittman was in game two. Yes, I know Michael Pittman didn’t play against the Jags in week two, and that’s exactly how I meant it. Brandin Cooks will be shut down, so much so, that it will be like he isn’t even playing in the game. At the beginning of the season I thought that the Jaguars DBs were one of the “iffy” positions on Jacksonville’s team. Through the last four games (minus the Washington fourth quarter), the Jags DBs have made believers out of me. Rayshawn Jenkins, Tyson Campbell, and Andre Cisco, in particular, have been fire, to use a saying of which the kids are so fond. Cooks is left raw (see what I did there) this Sunday.
PREDICTION: Jacksonville makes the Texans look like the Jaguars of last week, by causing numerous fumbles resulting in three takeaways by The Big Cat Dogs.
This week, after the problems suffered in Philly, there will be a coming out party. This week Doug Pederson, Mike Caldwell, Press Taylor and the rest of the Jaguars coaching staff, Went. To. Work. They overhauled this team’s mentality. Yes, it was already a great mentality. The team already bought into the system. They already brush off the good, and the bad, and play only for the upcoming week. So what, now what? But this week, a quarter of a way through the season, at a pivotal moment when the next four games are all extremely win-able, the Jacksonville Jaguars have turned it up. This week, prior to the Houston game, was different. This week they changed from wanting to show they are a good team to knowing every game is theirs to lose. The Jaguars mentality is no longer that they are just good. They are HIM.
PREDICTION: 45-17 JAX - This is the Jacksonville Jaguars coming out party. This week we introduce the entire NFL to the next “team to beat.” In the immortal words of Senior Jags Writer John Oehser, JaguarsTalk is all-in.