JaguarsTalk: Colts vs Jaguars

JaguarsTalk: The Colts come riding into town for the Jags home opener.

Nothing like playing your home opener against the number one team in your division. I was going to say “against a better division rival” but that, unfortunately, doesn’t really narrow the field when speaking about the Jags. The Colts will be coming to Jacksonville on September 18, the last game before they head back to Indy for their own home opener. It is quite possible, though very improbable, that both Indy and Jax could be headed into this game 1-0. This shouldn’t be a surprise for the Colts as they open against Houston. They will most likely be carrying a “W” into TIAA to greet the Jags. But then again, Indy is debuting a new QB (I mean it’s Matt Ryan folks, so it ain’t like a guy who doesn't know how to play the game) so, presumably, anything can happen. While we are talking about Indy QBs, did you know that the Colts signed 22 undrafted rookie free agents, and one was the Notre Dame QB, Jack Coan. Twenty Two! They literally almost signed me as well, probably (figuratively speaking, I’m pretty sure I used the term “literally” correctly). That is a crazy amount of undrafted rookie signings. For comparison, Jacksonville signed 15. Ironically, a Notre Dame WR was among the most notable for Jax (but we will get into that in a future column, if he isn’t cut by the time I get to actually putting pen to paper on that topic). Fifteen rookie undrafted is still a pretty high number, but it ain’t no deuce deuce. Where were we, ah yes, Indy is riding into town.

Listen, I have to be honest. I thought for sure that Matt Ryan was going to be an upgrade for the Colts come the 2022 season. I mean, I’ve watched them both ball and, to me, Matt Ryan looks like the better of the two. Maybe it’s because, being a Hokies fan, I watched Matt Ryan quite a bit in college. He obviously stood out in Chestnut Hill, at least enough to be picked in the first round by Atlanta, where, mind you, he did nothing but produce. But, in looking at their respective 2021 seasons, Wentz was statistically the better QB. Keep in mind though that Carson produced those stats with a far superior, and should have been playoff bound, Colts team surrounding him. Ryan, on the other hand, kept pretty close statistical pace, but with a dreadful Atlanta falcons crew. Matt Ryan, with Indianapolis, will be a step and a half (not quite two full steps) ahead of last year’s Colts QB production. Many prognosticators have picked them to win the AFC South and this prognosticator agrees.

Let’s examine what I consider to be the key to picking the winner of this game, the Jacksonville defense v. the Indianapolis offense. Can Jacksonville keep Indy’s offense in check? This is a difficult question to answer because so much of this game depends on momentum. So much of football depends on maturation. So much of the greatest sport on earth depends on injuries (God help me if stupid covid plays a role this season. We are all, well beyond, Fauci’d out). I think the only way Jacksonville has a chance is if all of their defensive draft picks are playing and maturing quickly. Walker needs to become one with his new role of playing a single position; outside linebacker. He also needs to be a disruptive force on blitzes, and frankly in general, even if only by demanding double teams, which should free up his playmates. His linebacking buddies need to hit the hole every single time and shut down the fantasy football point producing machine that is Jonathan Taylor. Sacking Matt Ryan will be easier than bringing down Carson Wentz if the Jaguars can consistently collapse the pocket. Matt Ryan is older than dirt. He was drafted in 2008. Does anybody remember 2008? The Dark Knight came out in 2008. That was like 5 Batman actors ago. Ironman was released. The first one. The best one. Captain America didn’t even exist yet. Andy Dwyer hadn’t shined a single shoe in Pawnee, Indiana in 2008. This means that 2008 was so long ago, Guardians of the Galaxy wasn’t even an itch in Marvel’s pocket and Chris was still “Fat Pratt”. Nobody remembers that long ago. Matt Ryan had already graduated college by then, which means this guy has got to be…carry the 1…very very OLD. And his legs, I would venture to guess, are at least as old as the rest of him. Ryan certainly isn’t outrunning the likes of Walker, Allen, Lloyd, or really anyone. If you, Joe Reader, were to collapse the pocket and find yourself one v one with Matt Ryan, then you, Joe Reader, would earn yourself your first (I am making an assumption, it could be your second) NFL sack. To aid in the ability to sack Matt Ryan this year will be his own wide receivers.

I don’t think that Indianapolis has as good a receiving core as they did last year. They lost T.Y. Hilton (a free agent at the time of publishing) and Zach Pascal (Philadelphia Eagles). Now, I understand that the Colts weren’t exactly the premier passing team in the league last year but losing receivers certainly isn’t going to help. Last year Michael Pittman Jr. had a coming out party, and is without question the Colts numero uno. Standing right down the line from him is the often injured Parris Campbell. Campbell, in his third year out of Ohio State, has only played in 15 games for the Colts. The latest injury, a foot issue, kept him out of 11 games last year. When healthy and playing, Campbell is, supposedly, a force to be reckoned with. In reality, nobody, not even the Colts themselves, know if that is truly the case. Let’s pretend, for a moment, that he is not the second coming of Marvin Harrison. This means that the Jags will double team Pittman, effectively taking him out of the passing game. The Colts will be forced to lean on their bread and butter, Jonathan Taylor, which is essentially their game plan anyway. However, when forced to only run the ball, with no other outlet, the Jags may just tip the scales in their favor.

The Colts are a run first team. It seems to be a fad with the Jaguars AFC South opponents. The make-up of the 2022 Indy offense lends itself to their opponents erasing the pass and challenging the Colts to beat them with their run game. I think this is exactly what Jacksonville needs to do. Shaq Griffin and a double team can render Pittman obsolete. Campbell may be great, he may not be, so I am going to assume he doesn’t need double coverage. With the passing game taken care of, the sole focus will be on shutting down Taylor. I know that this is easier said than done. The Colts offensive line is tremendous. They can make a hole, not only big enough for Taylor, but big enough for Taylor to drive a truck through. This is where the question of maturation comes into play. If Allen can make sure that his newly drafted compadres are up to the level we, as fans, expect such high draft picks to be, then Jacksonville's linebackers should be able to meet Indianapolis’ pulling linemen square in the open hole, clogging the lane and suppressing/stopping their run game.

Jacksonville’s chances in this game rest solely on their defense. If they can’t shut down Pittman Jr., force the run, and then use their amazing new linebackers to stuff Jonathan Taylor at the line, they lose. Truth be told, even if they can suppress the Colts offense and knock Taylor down a peg, they still may lose. The theme of this game is to keep the Colts scoring to a minimum and hope the Jags offense can score a few more points. It’s the classic bend don’t break mentality. The Colts will get some points but it must be kept to a minimum if Jacksonville’s offense has a shot. Remember when I said football is a game of maturation and momentum? Well I am looking at you Trevor Lawrence. If you can build on the momentum of last year's victory over the Colts (and what I believe can be a victory over Washington), and if you have, as so many expect, matured since last year, then I think the Jax offense has it in them to put up 17+ points per game.

I think that the additions of Christian Kirk, Travis Etienne Jr. and James Robinson (both returning from lengthy injuries), Evan Engram, Luke Fortner, and Brandon Scherff give the Jaguars the ability to outscore their opponents. This is, of course, only if Jacksonville’s defense can keep it close and give Trevor Lawrence the chance to utilize his new found threats. If Jacksonville is forced to consistently play from behind, or play catch up in blowouts, then all bets are off and that 17+ points per game drops precipitously. Everything Jacksonville’s offense can achieve this year starts with their defense. More specifically, their ability to hurry the opposing QB. Down the line, when Jacksonville comes across an athletic, escape artist type of quarterback ala (my Ma-homey and yours), Patrick Mahomes, it will be very interesting to see how, with their new found speed, the Jags keep from over-committing. This, though, is not the case with the Colts and Matt Ryan. Speed will dominate in this game. Let’s hope that all of the positive things we are reading about our draft picks from senior writer, John Oehser, translate to the regular season.

My fearless prediction for the Jaguars’ home opener doesn’t look as good as it did for the season opener. I fear that the Jaguars won’t have matured quite quickly enough, at such an early point in the season, to upend the eventual division winner. Unfortunately, I see the Colts jumping ahead early and exiting TIAA on the shoulders of a 20-10 victory. This, however, will not be the outcome when they meet later in the season (unless, of course, injuries rear their ugly head).

As always, feel free to rear your ugly head to leave your usual heartfelt wishes, suggestions, all around good feels, and comments below.

P.S. All I keep hearing from those paid to be right next to him in practice is “arms for days,” “catcher’s mitts for hands,” “such fluid movement.” Let’s keep in mind that if Travon Walker isn’t making chaos for opposing offenses by the end of this game, everyone will be talking about how the Jags blew the first pick. Ain’t nobody tryin’ to hear that, so let’s pray that Walker’s athleticism shines against Indy.