JaguarsTalk: Jaguars vs Texans

JaguarsTalk: Battle of the basement dwellers. While it comes down to on-field performance, this contest began with GM dominance.

After beating up on the NFC East, including a very well deserved victory over Coach Doug Pederson's former Philly Eagles, the AFC South comes to town. A two week stretch on the road has the Jags returning to The Bank at 2-2 with an important divisional match-up against the Houston Texans. Last year the Texans beat the Jaguars, both at the beginning and the end of the season. This year will be very different.

I must admit, it is increasingly challenging to write these columns. Not because I find it difficult to figure out which team will win and which will lose, but because I feel the reasons for Jags wins are becoming repetitive. This week, however, will be a little different. While I feel the amped up Jacksonville defense will smother a subpar Houston Texans offense, this week will be the week where everything clicks for Trevor Lawrence and the rest of the JAX offense. This week, at home, against Houston, will be T-Law’s coming out party. He will have the best day of his career. Lawrence will throw four touchdown passes. He will spread the ball out to, not only multiple receivers, but also running backs and tight ends. Everyone will be involved. We may even see a tackle eligible pass play. This will be a fun one for the Jacksonville faithful, at home, in The Bank. It will put your Jaguars above .500 for the first time in a very long time.

Now to provide some information as to why this complete domination of Houston’s Texans will take place. For one, Houston was awful last year. I realize the Jaguars were worse. Heck, Jacksonville lost twice to Houston, but Houston did not spend, nor draft, nearly as well as the Jaguars this past offseason. The Jags are a completely different team, top to bottom, from the place kicker to an entirely different coaching staff. Totally rebuilt. Houston more or less tried to plug holes in a sinking ship. They did, however, promote Lovie Smith to head coach and QB coach, Pep Hamilton to OC (that’s a great name btw…Pep), but nothing they did this offseason is enough to keep them from dwelling at the bottom of the AFC South this year.

The Texans were woefully bad in two specific areas last year, pass defense and run offense. They did attempt to improve those areas but not nearly enough to compensate for some of the other glaring issues that exist. In the offseason Houston signed RB Marlon Mack. They took him from divisional rival Indianapolis. He is currently listed as Houston’s starter followed by Rex Burkhead and Royce Freeman, both of whom are situational backs whose best years are behind them. Mack gets a chance to reprise his starting role that he lost in Indianapolis, but even his best season with the Colts in 2019 garnered 1,091 yards and only 8 TDs. So is Mack really the answer to an abysmal running game that, as reported by Sarah Barshop of ESPN, “finished the season last in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ rushing DVOA?” I’d argue this signing may improve their overall run ranking but it won’t move the needle at all in terms of wins. Next in line for Houston’s run game is 31 year old Rex Burkhead, who was signed to an extension this off-season. I like Burkhead’s hard nosed running style but he isn’t their savior either. Barring injuries, I believe that Marlon Mack and Burkhead will have average NFL seasons in 2022. Interestingly enough Houston did draft a running back, Dameon Pierce out of Florida, though they waited until the 107th pick on the third day. With eight rushing touchdowns and a 3.4 yards per carry average last year, both league worsts, one would have thought running back to be a higher priority for the Texans. They must have much more faith in Marlon Mack than we here at JaguarsTalk do. Dameon Pierce shined for the Gators last year with 16 rushing TDs, however the Gators were a depleted shell of their normal selves in 2021, so take the standouts from that team with a grain of salt. In addition, this pick was just to bolster the current RB stable. Had I been the GM of the Texans (they can call anytime) I would have taken a completely different approach to this season. Like I said, they tried to plug the holes instead of rebuilding the ship. The Texans will remain woefully bad at the run game in 2022, but not solely because of their running back situation, which only moved the needle ever so slightly. The other aspect of the Texans offense that will negatively affect the running game is their quarterback Davis Mills. 

Mills hails from Stanford and took the helm last year when Virginia Tech Hokie Tyrod Taylor went down with an injury (he would later take over for Taylor again toward the end of the season). Is Mills really the answer? Houston’s general manager, Nick Caserio seems to think so. Though head coach Lovie Smith hasn’t named Mills the official starter yet, it is obviously his job to lose because Caserio crowned him the man when he re-signed wide receiver Brandin Cooks instead of trading him and ridding the Texans of his big contract number. Caserio also went out and drafted extremely versatile offensive guard Kenyon Green, out of Texas A&M, with the 15th overall pick in the first round and also kept left tackle Laremy Tunsil on the roster instead of unloading his contract. In addition, the Texans drafted Alabama WR John Metchie III. Metchie was a productive wide receiver for Alabama last year who tore his ACL in December’s SEC championship game (more on Metchie below). The Texans must see something pretty damn good in Davis Mills to kill their chances of rebuilding from a clean slate. I will say that the QB pool in this years draft was not very deep so maybe the Texans had no choice but to sink or swim with Mills. In looking at their QB depth chart, it just doesn’t give one the warm fuzzies (Davis Mills, Kyle Allen, Jeff Driskel, Kevin Hogan).

We’ve covered the Texan’s run game and delved into possible QB issues that could potentially hinder Houston's passing game, putting the onus on their running backs. A one dimensional offense is much easier to defend. If we are being completely honest, the Jaguars defense is built to stop the likes of Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor so anything Houston throws at Jacksonville, as far as the run game, isn’t overly concerning. Pederson would probably prefer that Houston try to beat the Jags with Mack, Burkhead, Pierce, and Freeman. It is the belief of the JaguarsTalk staff that Houston absolutely needs QB Davis Mills to be a gamer in order to open up the run, otherwise Houston has a good shot at the number one draft pick next year. Let’s complete this match-up review by quickly analyzing Houston’s overall 2022 draft then tell you why Jacksonville will sweep them this year.

Houston, like Jacksonville, had many holes to fill in the past offseason. Unlike Jacksonville, however, Houston lacks a few things that the Jaguars are fortunate enough to have. The Jags have Trevor Lawrence, a solid starting quarterback (though Mills could surprise everyone). The Jaguars have Travis Etienne Jr., essentially a redshirt rookie first round draft pick with explosive speed. In addition the Jaguars made some impressive, if not overly expensive, offseason moves and excelled in the draft. Brandon Scherff brings pro-bowl experience to the offensive line while Luke Fortner brings needed depth (though he is currently listed as the starting center). Time will tell concerning the Jaguars' new receivers, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. While neither are true number ones, they both are more than capable NFL caliber WRs. The signing of Kevin Austin from ND will add some physical depth to the group as well. Last year the Jags were lacking a bit in the tight end category. While I am a huge fan of Tim Tebow and wish that he had a role with the organization, in any capacity, I can wholeheartedly agree that Jacksonville significantly beefed up their tight end position with Evan Engram and Dan Arnold. These two have the potential to wreak havoc on defenses. I’m not yet ready to crown them the next Gronkowski and Hernandez, but if they can keep from Aaron-like jail time extracurriculars, they have a solid shot at being real game changers for JAX.

We all know that Jacksonville has built, on paper, a run stuffing defense, made to crush the hopes and dreams of the NFLs best ball carriers, so there is no need to deep dive into that topic yet again. Injuries aside, the Jaguars have plugged all of their holes. The only exception might be their defensive backs, but you all know a defensive backs best friend is a great pass rush. Enter Josh Allen, Travon Walker, Devin Lloyd, Dawuane Smoot, Chad Muma, etc…These guys do their job and Shaq Griffin, Rayshawn Jenkins, Cisco and the crew will have a much better chance of containing Houston’s number one, Brandin Cooks and newly drafted John Metchie III. Long story even longer, Jacksonville has filled their most pressing needs much better than Houston has. Baalke and Pederson get credit for one hell of an offseason that will position Jacksonville well above Houston in this year's AFC South.

Houston’s problematic areas were not ignored. They were addressed, but I wouldn’t say their holes were filled, plugged would be a better descriptor. As was stated earlier, Houston had a horrific run game, one of the worst in the league, and they lacked in the defensive back area as well. These two areas needed immediate attention, and the Texans did address them. They brought in RB Mack from the Colts and drafted CB Derek Stingley Jr. out of LSU with the third overall pick in the first round. Stingley Jr. is a highly regarded shutdown corner which Houston desperately needs to shore up one of the worst pass defenses in the league. They allowed the second most yards per game last season. One major issue is that Stingley Jr. has an extensive injury history, playing in only ten games the past two seasons. He had a season ending, surgery requiring, foot injury last year and did not participate in the NFL combine. Risky pick? Time will tell. Sports Info Solutions correctly points out that “Stingley’s 35% completion percentage allowed is second only to Cincinnati’s Ahmad Sauce Gardner (ESPN).” Sauce Gardner is a tall (6’3”), fast (4.41 - 40), long armed (33.5 inch arms), sticky handed (nine interceptions), tight coverage machine. He commits few penalties and was rarely, if ever, injured. Most importantly, Sauce didn’t allow a touchdown in three collegiate seasons (over 1000 coverage snaps). More surprisingly, he was still on the board when the Texans selected Stingley Jr., who was injured as often as he wasn’t. Once again, had I been Houston’s GM, I would have unquestionably taken Gardner before Stingley. Durability in that position, at the NFL level is extremely important. When one guy didn’t allow a collegiate touchdown and the other had multiple foot injuries, I think the Texans, like Ron Burgundy chugging milk on a hot day, made a bad choice. So let’s look at the rest of Houston’s draft.

Since new head coach Lovie Smith has gone all in with Davis Mills at QB, he drafted some protection with Houston’s second pick. With the fifteenth overall pick of the 2022 draft Houston took Kenyon Green, offensive guard, Texas A&M. Houston finished last in the NFL with roughly three yards per run attempt and was 27th in pass block win rate last season, according to ESPN Stats & Info. Will this rookie be enough to halt Jacksonville’s formidable run-stopping defense, or keep QB Mills upright against Josh Allen and company? Most likely not. More is needed to shore up this offensive deficiency. In round two Houston took safety Jalen Pitre out of Baylor, presumably to take the place of Justin Reid, one of Houston’s best DBs, who now wears a Chiefs uniform. Pitre might be good but he can not replace Reid. Not right out of the box. It should be a field day for the Jags WRs and TEs (like we stated earlier - four passing touchdowns for T-Law).

We touched on Houston’s 44th pick, in round two, and frankly he has me a little concerned. Wide receiver John Metchie III out of Alabama, has potential to throw a wrench in the Jaguars game plan. Houston’s slot receivers in 2021 were nothing short of pathetic, ranking 28th in receptions in the NFL. Metchie, conversely, was a beast at Bama with 96 catches, 1,142 yards and 8 TDs in his final season. He will contribute immediately. With Brandin Cooks as his partner in crime, Shaq Griffin and company will have their hands full. This is where the Jacksonville pass rush needs to shine. If the Jaguars can’t fluster Mills then their secondary will have a very long afternoon. Again, though, Houston seems to pick players coming off of major injuries. Metchie tore his ACL in the SEC championship game this past December. I realize that an ACL surgery is pretty routine but there’s still a big question mark as to whether he comes back 100%.

With the next pick Houston took a Linebacker in the third round. Christian Harris from Alabama is a gamer, 80 tackles, 11.5 for a loss with 5.5 sacks, but I don’t think he will move the needle very much for the Texans against the Jags revamped O-line. Finally, in the fourth round they selected a running back, Dameon Pierce, out of Gainesville. As mentioned earlier the Florida Gator had 16 TDs last year and we project he will eventually take over for Marlon Mack. Until his ascension he will be a solid back-up providing Mack much needed rest from the Jaguars rushing attack. Houston ended the draft with a defensive tackle, a tight end, and an offensive tackle providing depth for their big men and another set of hands to go along with last year's rookie tight end, Brevin Jordan. None of these picks will affect the outcome of the Jaguars - Texans game in week five of this young NFL season.

In an attempt to simplify this entire meandering column, these are two of 2021s worst NFL teams. For all intents and purposes they were equally horrendous. The difference comes down to the fact that the Jaguars filled their holes with better players than did the Texans. In addition, the Jags have Trevor Lawrence, while Houston is “hoping” that Mills turns out to be good enough to keep the starting job. The scales are tipped in Jacksonville’s favor with this one and the Jags will start the season 3-2 by beating Houston 35-24, on what is rumored to be Tony Boselli day. Congratulations on the Hall of Fame, Tony.

It need not be said, yet must be typed. If you find yourself in a glass case of emotion about this one, feel free to leave your comments below.