Jaguars Christian Kirk Controversy

JT: Worth Every Penny?

I heard Brent Martineau from Action Sports Jax do his podcast from Davoli’s House of Cards in St. John’s County this past Tuesday. In one of the segments he was talking about Christian Kirk, his value for the extraordinary amount of money that the Jaguars paid to acquire him from Arizona, and his ability to… Just. Get. Open. He had run the numbers, done the research and found that if you compared Christian Kirk to what many would consider to be a superstar, beast of a wide receiver, Seattle’s DK Metcalf, Kirk may have been undervalued. This is pretty interesting considering any Tom, Dick or Harry off the street would take Metcalf in a heartbeat if asked to choose. Nobody would bat an eye. I, in fact, even after hearing this argument and doing a little research myself, confirming what Martineau stated, STILL have trouble NOT leaning in DKs direction. But the facts are the facts. Maybe DK will thrive even more with Geno Smith (7 receptions for 36 yards against Denver Monday night). So, I thought it would be interesting to compare Christian Kirk (6 receptions - 117 yards against Washington) to the other number one wide receivers in the AFC South. The Colts Michael Pittman Jr. (9 receptions - 121 yards, 1 TD against Houston), the Texans Brandin Cooks (7 receptions - 82 yards against Indianapolis), and the Titans Robert Woods (1 reception, 13 yards against the New York Giants). 

Christian Kirk signed, what is widely considered to be, a ridiculously high contract for his value, four-years, $72 million with $37 million guaranteed. Literally everyone, upon the signing, exclaimed that Kirk was not a true number one receiver. They said he was not worth nearly that much money and the Jaguars overpaid in order to try and generate some offense for Trevor Lawrence. 

Brandin Cooks signed with the Houston Texans for two years at $39,764,000. He got a signing bonus of $16 million with $36 million guaranteed.

Michael Pittman Jr. is still under his rookie contract, so my man wins this game hands down. He signed a four-year deal worth $8,612,850 including a signing bonus of $3,823,892 with $5,825,385 guaranteed. If anyone feels that Pittman’s next deal will be worth less than Christian Kirk’s current deal, please raise your hand now so you can be publicly ridiculed. Pittman will command boat loads of money that will shadow Kirk’s middle class, working man’s wage.

Robert Woods was acquired from the LA Rams to take the place of Julio Jones. He was traded for a sixth-round draft pick and a $10 million salary in 2022, pending a reworked contract with Tennessee. His last contract with LA however was for four-years $65 million including $32 million guaranteed. 

At a quick glance, and removing Michael Pittman from this portion of the conversation, it seems that Robert Woods signed for just under the Christian Kirk amount, and that Brandin Cooks trumps Christian Kirk’s overall deal, if you were to extend it from two to four years. Just off the top of my head I would not consider Brandin Cooks or Robert Woods to be better than Christian Kirk. If anything, I would consider them to be comparable, of which they certainly are when speaking about contract size (though JT believes Kirk will pull ahead on the field and lead this pack as 2022 progresses). So, let’s take a look at statistical history.

Christian Kirk, over his career (2018-today) has played 57 games, 242 of 369 (he catches 65.58% of his targets) for 3,019 yards (average of 12.475 yards per catch) and 17 TDs. It is also positive to note that he has never fumbled the ball. Remember, Kirk achieved these numbers as Arizona’s WR #2.

Since we mentioned him above, we included DK Metcalf’s numbers, 2019-2022 - 50 games, 223 of 365 (he catches 61.09% of his targets) for 3206 yards (14.4 average), 29 TDs and 6 fumbles with 5 lost. DK Metcalf’s new contract pays him $6 million more per year than Kirk’s contract. Remember, Metcalf achieved these numbers as Seattle’s WR #1.

Robert Woods has been around much longer than Kirk (since 2013) so let’s use his 2018-today stats for comparison purposes. Woods, over that span in his career, has played 57 games, 312 of 469 (he catches 66.52% of his targets), for 3,858 yards (average of 12.36 yards per catch) and 18 TDs. 

Brandin Cooks, also in the league longer than Kirk, from 2018-today has amassed the following stats. He has played 62 games, 300 of 454 (he catches 66.07% of his targets), for 4056 yards (13.52 yards per catch) and 19 TDs. 

The three number one starting wide receivers in the AFC South (Kirk, Woods, Cooks) are essentially statistically identical. Their contracts are essentially monetarily identical as well, yet nobody batted an eye when Cooks and Woods signed their John Hancock on the dotted line. Only when Kirk got his money did people suggest that the Jaguars overpaid because Kirk isn’t a “true” number one wide receiver. That last statement proves our entire point. Kirk was never the Cardinals “true” number one go to wide receiver, yet he still put up numbers essentially identical to those of actual “true” number ones. So, if as a number two guy, he can statistically match number one guys, then it would make a lot of sense to pay him like a number one guy, because once he becomes a “true” number one guy, he would by default produce even more than he did as a number two guy. Which, ipso facto, means Kirk as a “true” number one with Jacksonville will be producing more than the other “true” number ones in the AFC South. So, by the logic of all the naysayers who think Kirk got more than he deserved, it turns out Christian was actually a bargain. A steal for Shad Khan and the Jaguars.

Just for the sake of comparing contracts, here is how Christian Kirk’s numbers break down next to AFC South guys and some of the league's best wide receivers.

Kirk is being paid $18 million per year

Woods is making $16.25 million per year

Cooks is getting $19,882,000 per year

Metcalf makes $24 million per year

Diggs is making $26 million per year

Hill is getting $30 million per year

Adams makes $28.2 per year

We will see what Kirk produces on the field in 2022, but if game one is any indication, the guy just knows how to make space. Being that he is now the number one receiver with the Jaguars, the sky is his statistical limit. As Brent Martineau stated on his podcast, when taking all of this into consideration, Christian Kirk is looking less like an expense, and more like an investment. We tend to agree.

Of course, there are those of you who want to agree with us as well. Please feel free to do so in the comment section below.

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