Titans & Texans & Colts, Oh My!

JT: The AFC South is Ripe for the Taking

A lot can be said, both negative and positive, about the Jacksonville Jaguars opening game against the Washington Commanders. Jacksonville lost, but they showed their capability against a worthy opponent. The burning question is will the lessons be learned and employed in time for the Jaguars first AFC South matchup this Sunday September, 18 against the Indianapolis Colts? Game two of this young season is extremely important to Jacksonville for several reasons. The Jaguars have such momentum right now that even with a loss they know they have the ability to be something special this year. A second loss against Indy this week might deflate and destroy that momentum. If that goes, so does the rest of this season. You have to believe in order to achieve.

This in mind, JaguarsTalk wants to take a closer look at the AFC South to see if Jacksonville actually has a shot at sitting atop the division. The NFLs opening weekend held a lot of surprises. The Pittsburgh Steelers beat Burrow’s Bengals in overtime, 23-20, and Monday night’s upset of the Denver Broncos in Russell Wilson’s return to Seattle was just the latest. There were, however, two games of particular interest to JT, as they specifically relate to Jacksonville. The New York football Giants came back in surprising fashion to beat the Tennessee Titans, 21-20, while the Indianapolis Colts tied the Houston Texans 20-20 at the end of overtime. Without going down a rabbit hole discussing tie games in any professional sport, let alone the NFL, we can just agree that it’s quite literally stupid to allow such a thing in sports. Games are to be won or lost, never tied. It reminds me of the “everybody gets a trophy” mentality that has ruined generations of children because their parents didn’t want to hurt their tiny little feelings by introducing reality while they were young. I’ve somehow turned a tie game rabbit hole into a proper parenting lecture. For that, I apologize. The bottom line is that in sports, there are winners and there are losers. The fact that the Titans and Colts tied means that, week one loser Jacksonville, still has a shot at being an AFC South winner.

Currently the absolute, hands down, most dominant division in the NFL to date, the AFC South (so much sarcasm I can’t take it) looks like this: First Place) Indianapolis Colts/Houston Texans, both with 0-0-1 records. Second Place) Tennessee Titans/Jacksonville Jaguars, both with 0-1 records. This powerhouse of a division is completely up for grabs. Maybe we here at JaguarsTalk are getting a little overly enthusiastic about things, after all it is only week one and the games could have been a fluke. We certainly know that the Jaguars/Commanders game was one such “fluke.” We’ve written and podcasted extensively about how Jacksonville would have practically doubled their actual score if not for their missed opportunities. With the possibility of flukes in mind, did we see Matty Ice Light in action this past Sunday or does the Colts QB still contain the same flavor he had with the Falcons when he was regular Matty Ice? In looking at the stats we can conclude that Matty Ice, while possibly having some senior moments here and there, still looks more like his old self than a fewer calorie, watered down, light version. He went 32-50, 1TD, 1INT against Houston’s defense. Indy had 340 passing yards and 177 yards on the ground. Indy ran 22 more plays than Houston and controlled the time of possession by almost a ten minute differential. One interesting stat reveals that, like the Jaguars, the Colts shot themselves in the foot with penalties. Indy racked up 7 for 89 yards.

The takeaways for Indianapolis are that they lost focus and discipline much like Jacksonville. They shot themselves in the foot and committed penalties that cost them valuable yardage and possible points on the board. That will most certainly be addressed before the Colts travel to The Bank this weekend to face JAX. Other than that they turned the ball over twice, an issue they can also improve upon with more focus and discipline, before heading to the First Coast. So is Indy worse than everyone thought or is Davis Mills - who? Davis Mills, the Houston quarterback. Yes, he is an NFL quarterback. Is he much better than anyone imagined? Mills had 222 passing yards, while the rest of Houston only had 77 yards on the ground. Houston ran only 68 total plays to Indy’s 90, but two of those plays were touchdown passes to O.J. Howard - who? O.J. Howard! He’s Houston’s tight end. I’m not making him up. Don’t worry half the guys on his team don’t know who he is yet, as he wasn’t even a Texan last week. In fact, he is so unknown that Yahoo’s sports site is quoted as saying “O.J. Howard resurfaces in random two-touchdown gem.” They used the words “resurfaces” and “random” to describe his performance. Of the 14 major performance categories, Houston led in only three; Fewer penalty yards, one fewer turnover, and no fourth down attempts whereas the Colts tried one and failed. This was a statistical domination by Indianapolis and yet the Houston Texans led 20-3 in the fourth quarter. Queue me some C&C Music Factory ‘cause these here facts are things that make [me] go Hmmmm…

Let’s do that analysis thing now. Houston played a bad game because Houston is not a great team. Somehow, though, they were still able to go up 20-3 on the Colts defense. The pride of Indianapolis is Jonathan Taylor, without Taylor Indy gets kicked, Sparta style, into the dark depths of mediocrity never to be heard from again. Matty Ice isn’t any better or worse than Carson Wentz was for Indy, he is just older and a little less nimble. The key to defeating both the Colts and the Texans lies on the defensive side of the ball. The Colts have Pittman and Taylor and that’s it. If any team can take away the football delivery method (Matt Ryan) then all they have to do is focus on Jonathan Taylor. No small feat, however a game can not one running back win. And if a defense exists in the NFL that can contain Taylor then the Colts will look like a high school JV squad.

Houston, well, remember when we were talking about “flukes.” We may be wrong but nothing we saw from Houston’s defense tells us they can stop many teams from scoring and Houston’s offense, while extremely efficient (they scored a lot with few yards, few plays, less time of possession), wasn’t overly productive. Both AFC South teams looked porous on defense and heavily reliant (on one or two players) on offense. Do the Tennessee Titans fit this profile as well?

Tennessee, while leading 13-0 at halftime, promptly dialed up Jacksonville players (leading in the fourth quarter of their game) to see if they wanted to hit the links for a round of 18. Thus both teams forgot to play until the whistle. The bottom of the NFC East barrel NY Giants came back to beat the Titans 21-20 in the fourth quarter. This game was pretty statistically split with one exception, the Giants had 238 rushing yards while Derrick Henry (82 yards) and the Titans had only 93 total. This tells me that Tennessee's offensive line will be filled with the likes of Travon Walker, Josh Allen, Foye Oluokun, and Devin Lloyd. In addition, the fact that Saquon Barkley had 164 yards rushing on the Titans defense should have James Robinson and Travis Etienns salivating. Folks, the Giants are sub par all the way around, with the exception of Saquon Barkley who is a phenom every once in a while. If the Giants can beat the Titans, especially if the Giants defense can hold Derrick Henry to 82 yards rushing, then the rebuilt, revamped Jacksonville defense can certainly do better. Again, the name of the game is to force Tennessee to beat you through the air, and they lost both A.J Brown and Julio Jones. That is why Tannehill's new favorite target is running back Dontrell Hilliard. He hit him out of the backfield for both of his passing touchdowns.

Both the Titans and the Colts are worse than people thought they would be, while the Jaguars showed they have what it takes (they just need to employ it) to beat good teams with top players. Houston, well, unless Davis Mills is Babe Laufenberg in disguise, I don’t see how he can win many games this year. The name of the game for the Jaguars has been confirmed by the week one play of their AFC South opponents. Stop the running backs. Stop Taylor and the Colts are done. Stop Henry, and now Hilliard, and the Titan offense falls. As far as Houston is concerned, just show up and play a solid game. Ladies and Gentlemen, the AFC South is completely for the Jaguars taking. With week one in the books Jacksonville is without a doubt (I’m sure some of you will leave your doubts in the comment section below) the best team in their division.