Jaguars Bye Week Analysis (Defense)

JT: A Look at the Defense Through the Eye of Tackling Stats

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been a bit of a disappointment this season. It can be partially blamed on the fan base, expectations went through the roof after wins in games two and three. It can be partially blamed on the offense with all of the red zone struggles, turnovers, dropped passes and overthrows during crucial points in the games. Mostly (recently) though, the blame can be placed on the Jacksonville defense. We will make a case in this column for why the defense is to shoulder the blame, but at what point do we begin to point fingers at the defensive scheme, or even the coaching? No matter where you throw your blame, no matter where the true fault lies, no major changes are going to be made before the end of this season and because of that fact this bye week is the only time to make impactful adjustments that could help change the trajectory of the rest of the Jaguars season.

In week one the Jaguars played the Washington Stupid New Names. In the fourth quarter the Jaguars had the lead. It was a substantial lead requiring two fourth quarter Washington touchdowns to rain on the Jacksonville parade. This loss can be pinned on the Q4 defensive play or more aptly, lack thereof. Terry McLaurin hauled in a 49 yard TD bomb with 9:36 left in the game. It was a 2:09 drive consisting of 4 plays gaining 78 yards. This was followed by rookie WR Jahan Dotson bringing in a 24 yard haul from now benched (and never to start in the NFL again) Carson Wentz. This is the drive that put the dagger in the heart of the JAX faithful. How does a defense play a great first three quarters and then just poop the bed? A defense, mind you, that was built specifically to be the team’s dominant force. No other phase, not the offense nor the special teams, was supposed to hold a candle to the ability of this Jaguars defense.

Let’s take a look at some notable takeaways from this game. Travon Walker looked every bit like the right number one draft pick with one interception and one sack. First round draft pick Devin Lloyd led the D with 11 tackles (8 solo). Off-season acquisition Foye Oluokun had 10 tackles (6 solo), Safety Andre Cisco, 5 tackles (5 solo), Travon Walker and Josh Allen each had 4 tackles with 3 solos. This looks impressive. This is impressive. These stats should have beaten Washington. So the loss was chalked up to a lack of maturation, rookie mistakes, not enough time to gel, youth and inexperience. All of these excuses are believable and viable. In this first game of the season, they are probably highly accurate and factual reasons. 

In the second game of the season it seemed that the defense fixed some “correctable mistakes” and blew out the Indianapolis Colts at the JAX home opener. Matt Ryan was held to 16 of 30 for 195 yards with 3 interceptions. He had a QB rating of 34.0. It doesn’t get much worse. Jonathan Taylor, last years league leading rusher, was kept to 54 yards on 9 carries. Cisco and Lloyd each had 6 tackles (4 and 3 solos respectively). Oluokun had 4 and 3. Josh Allen 3 and 2 and Travon Walker 2 and 2. Lloyd, Jenkins and Cisco all had interceptions. It seems the defense tweaked the minor problems it had during the Washington game. 

During the Jags trip across the country they beat LA 38 -10 to continue their defensive dominance. Oluokun led the way this week with 8 tackles, 7 solos. Lloyd yet another strong performance (7 tackles, 5 solo). Jenkins recorded 5/4 and Cisco clocked in at 5/3. Walker and Allen brought up the rear with 2 tackles and 1 tackle respectively. Lloyd had yet another interception to add to his already stellar rookie career. 

And then came game four where the offense threw the defense under the bus. Trevor Lawrence had one interception and four fumbles, putting the Jacksonville defense back on the field instead of allowing them to rest while the offense mounted a clock-eating drive. Foye Oluokun balled out with 16 tackles, 12 solo. Lloyd, again with a stellar game recording 14 tackles, 4 solo. Josh Allen came alive against Philly with 7 and 3. Jenkins a solid 6 and 4, while Travon and Cisco brought up the rear with 5/3 and 4/3 respectively. Yes the Philly game was a loss but by the numbers the JAX defense played a pretty damn decent game. But something happened during week four. A switch was thrown and the Jaguars offense stopped playing up to the expectations they set in weeks two and three. The defense played well in game five which saw the Houston Texans come to town and leave with their only victory of the entire season. Jenkins led the Jags with 12 tackles 7 solos. Lloyd had 11/6. Oluokun 8/6. Campbell 6/4. Walker 5/3, Cisco 2/1, and Josh Allen 1/1.

Then there was week six against the Colts. The defense decided to switch positions and play worse than offense. Worse than they’ve played all year. The Jags defense recorded the following: Oluokun 12/6, Cisco 9/6, Jenkins 8/7, Campbell 7/7, Lloyd 7/5, Walker 4/1, and Allen 1/1. Week 7 against the Giants went as follows: Oluokun 12/6, Cisco 8/7, Campbell 7/5, Lloyd 7/2, Jenkins 5/3, Walker 5/2, Allen 2/1. The eighth week of the season in London against the Broncos showed this: Oluokun 9/8, Jenkins 8/5, Herndon 5/5, Campbell 5/3, Walker 5/1, Lloyd 5/0, Cisco 4/3, Allen 2/2. LVR in week 9 produced these stats: Oluokun 9/7, Cisco 6/2, Jenkins 5/2, Allen 3/1, Campbell and Walker 2/2. And finally week 10 gave us these stats: Oluokun 7/7, Muma 6/4, Allen 6/3, Jenkins 5/4, Montaric Brown, Cisco and Lloyd all had 3 tackles while Campbell was 2/2. So what does all this tell us?

We are looking at total tackles and solos in this column. The one thing we can most certainly infer from this data is that Foye Oluokun was one hell of a good get for Jacksonville. He led the team in total tackles, seven out of the ten games they played this year, and was in the top three in the remaining three games. Oluokun is a gamer. Devin Lloyd had a bit of a fall from grace as the season progressed. The talented first rounder out of Utah was number one in week one against Washington with 11 tackles and 8 solos. In week two Lloyd was tied for first with Cisco each having 6 total tackles. Each also had an interception in that game. Against the Chargers in week 3 Lloyd was second below Oluokun just as he was in week 4 against the Eagles. And he continued his success in week 6 against Houston coming in second with 11 total and 6 solo tackles. Then in week six, someone pulled the rug out from under Devin Lloyd. Matty Ice and the Indianapolis Colts exposed Lloyds weak spot. They dominated Lloyd underneath in the short passing game. Lloyd dropped in tackles with only 7 total and 5 solo. He continued his downward spiral against the Giants the following week, again recording 7 and then went to London to record only 5 against the Broncos. In week nine, against Vegas, Lloyd fell off the cliff recording only one tackle, and against KC in week ten only three, being replaced by rookie third rounder Chad Muma who came in second with 6 total and 4 solo tackles. 

Josh Allen and Travon Walker have been somewhat consistent in that they have been middle of the road from the beginning while Josh Allen peaked against the Eagles in week four only to drop to the bottom of the barrel in weeks 5-9, resurfacing in week 10 against the Chiefs for 6 total tackles and 3 solos.

I realize that we are looking only at the defense and only at the tackle statistic. Still this stat is rather telling. The Jaguars pass rush has never been great, however the defense didn’t start contributing to the losses until after the Colts dismantled them with the short pass, discovering the blueprint with which to beat Jacksonville. It was the offense who lost the Eagles game in week four and the Houston game in week five. The defense lost the Colts game in week six, the Giants in week 7, Broncos in week 8, and it was the defense that was thoroughly embarrassed by Andy Reid's play calling in the week 10 debacle against the Chiefs.

Judging by these tackling numbers, the opposing offense is getting to the second level too often and too easily. Cisco, Campbell, and Jenkins are scoring too high on the tackle list every week. This says that the opposition's run game and/or passing game is seeing too much success for the Jaguars to record a dubya. Meanwhile Walker and Allen remain average if not worse with the pass rush, and that directly affects the play of theJags DBs who have to cover the opposing WRs while the other team's QB has enough time to make a sandwich in the pocket. 

The Jaguars safeties, Andre Cisco and Rayshawn Jenkins have proven to be two studs on the defense. Tyson Campbell is a true shutdown corner who can play man to man coverage, but the problem is that Shaq Griffin (injured), Tre Herndon, Darious Williams, and Montaric Brown are not. Darious has been a bit of a disappointment while Herndon and Brown are very green and unable to be put on an island against a teams #2 wide out. This forces Mike Caldwell to run a zone defense which, for whatever reason, Jacksonville players can not grasp. So the once feared, killer Jacksonville defense can be summed up as pass rushers who don’t get to the passer, linebackers who can’t cover the short passes over the middle, DBs (minus Campbell) who can’t play man, and an overall lack of understanding of how to play zone defense (just watch the KC film).

The JAX defensive players are talented. They are athletic and they are deserving of their draft spots. They were highly touted on every NFL teams draft boards, so Jacksonville did not reach for these picks, nor did they draft poorly. In fact, many would argue that Lloyd and Muma were higher on most boards than where they were actually taken. Muma was projected by many to be a second rounder and Lloyd a top half of the first round pick. If anything, Jacksonville got value. So if the issue isn’t the talent on the field then what is the problem? Yes the majority of the defense is green. Yes they are young and they are rookies. But there is more to it. It’s a question of scheme. Mike Caldwell is young and green as well. He is a rookie DC. He is trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. He is trying to make the talent conform to his scheme rather than conforming the scheme to the talent on the field. This is a mistake. Maybe the answer is running a 4-3 instead of a 3-4. Maybe that will get a rush going and spring Walker and Allen, which would in turn help the DBs so that Cisco and Jenkins don’t have to play like pro-bowlers every game. The problem definitely isn’t the talent in that locker room, the answer lies in the way they are utilized. That is what Doug Pederson and Mike Caldwell need to focus on during this bye week, because the offense has had their coming out party and are producing on a much higher level over the past few games. We have two weeks to get it right, get it tight. So let’s fix this defense, Doug (but mostly Mike).

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