JaguarsTalk: Jacksonville vs Washington - A Tale of Two Cities’ Drafts
JaguarsTalk: It was the best of linebacking times, it was the worst of linebacking times
In the previous column we delved into the what’s what of the Jaguars newly vaunted defense and how they would fare against the artist formerly known as the Washington Redskins. Jacksonville’s old AFC South nemesis, Carson Wentz, will be piloting a new plane in 2022, with an improved receiving core and a very good backfield. We showed, in what I can only categorize as expertly crafted word play, how the Jags newbies complement their vets in such a way that Jacksonville is now, not only physical enough to play smash mouth with the big boys, but also able to stop those who like to dance, run the ball and make romance. RIP Sweetness. It is difficult to believe that it has been almost 23 years since you were taken. Today, or maybe tomorrow, I have no idea when you are reading this, I plan to host your brief escape from reality by regaling you with Jacksonville offensive intrigue.
He is more than just a beautiful head of hair. He is also a Heisman trophy finalist, a national champion, and the number one pick in the NFL draft. This type of resume is supposed to make super human strides in year two of an NFL career. The Jacksonville powers that be sure have put together a surrounding cast that should help Lawrence to flourish (by flourish, I mean his touchdown to interception ratio should be, at the very least, flipped from what it was in 2021). This offensive cast will allow T.L. to have more time in the pocket. More time in the pocket will allow Lawrence to make better decisions. Better decisions lead to more completions, more yardage, more touchdowns, and fewer interceptions. So who will be giving number 16 these advantages and how will they stack up against a Washington defense that, on-paper, looks pretty stout?
As was referenced in the previous column, Brandon Scherff, a once fierce protector of the burgundy and gold, has flown to greener (read: more teal-ish) pastures to now solidify an offensive force charged with the care of second year pro Trevor Lawrence. Scherff’s reason for leaving the Skins came down to being sick of Snyder’s losing ways. He rightly decided to instead trade those in to become part of Jacksonville’s losing ways. Let’s face it, losing sucks, but losing in warm, sunny Florida sucks way less than when it’s cold and crappy outside. Or, and hear me out, Scherff coming to The First Coast may have had something to do with the $49.5 million, three year contract. This lucrative little agreement comes with a guarantee of $30 million and a sweetener of $1 million every year he makes it to the pro-bowl. Folks, he’s already a five time pro-bowler and has only been in the league since 2015. For that kind of money, I would have traded in my snow boots for flip flops as well. This is, what will surely end up being, $50+ million of proof that the Jacksonville organization is willing to give T.L. everything he needs to succeed.
Another quite large piece of the protection puzzle was drafted out of Kentucky this year., Mr. Luke Fortner. He has the versatility to play a few different positions along the offensive line but we all know that he’ll be bumping Tyler Shatley from the starting center position sooner rather than later.
Flanking Fortner will be 2020 fourth round draft pick Ben Bartch and the afore-mentioned Brandon Scherff. At the all-important tackle positions sit Jawaan Taylor, the 24 year old Florida Gator, and 6’6” 335 lb. Alabama blind-side specialist, Cam Robinson. Whoops, I almost forgot a very important part of that Jags offensive line. The man who might be tasked with helping to double team one of the fiercest edge rushers in the entire league, Chase Young. Chase has 9 sacks, 63 tackles, and 6 forced fumbles (at least that’s what Google says) in his short but brutal NFL career. The guy is a 6’5” beast of a man with such long dreads that he looks like Predator when coming after you. I, for one, would not want to have to step in front of that freight train, but you know who will help do that exact thing? Newly acquired Tight End, Evan Engram. Engram has always been that guy I’d draft on my fantasy team that I knew had the ability to be great but never quite materialized in the passing game the way I needed him to. His blocking, however, will be sorely needed if Jacksonville has a shot at beating Washington in game one. A 2017 first round draft pick, Engram will need to really step it up to help the Jaguars in September. Remember, Washington knows Engram, his positives and his negatives. They’ve played against him twice a year for the past four years. What Engram and Jacksonville know, however, is that if they can cage the beast that is Young long enough to get the ball to the second level, whether it be a running play or pass over the middle, Washington’s weak spot, the linebacker position, can be exploited.
The linebacking core of the Skins was so bad in 2021 that Jonathan Eig of Riggo’s Rag had this pre-draft advice for Washington:
“I suspect Devin Lloyd will be off the board at #11, but Nakobe Dean may well be available.” Implying that Washington should, without a doubt, take Lloyd with their first pick. He went on to say that “Brian Asamoah only makes sense if Jamin Davis can play in the middle.” Well, first round draft pick Jamin Davis proved time and again last season that he can not play the Mike position. He was always getting lost in the weeds and tended to be slow at figuring out offensive schemes. His strength is the Will or Strong side backer. Jonathan Eig continued by saying: “In the second round of the draft Chad Muma is a steady, reliable player who can line up anywhere, including the middle. He offers flexibility. If it’s me, I’m targeting Muma in the second. That’s the safest bet, and I don’t need to double down on risky moves at linebacker.”
Well damned if Riggo’s Rag didn’t end up writing an outstanding review of two of the Jaguars 2022 draft picks. Devin Lloyd was available to the Skins and they passed on him to provide Carson Wentz with a wide receiver from Penn State. The Jaguars, in their infinite wisdom, very smartly jumped back into the first round to snag him for themselves. In addition, it turns out Chad Muma was still available in the second round, but Washington instead went with Defensive Tackle, Phidarian Mathis from Alabama. This allowed the Jags to smartly scoop up Muma in the third round. Washington, in fact, did absolutely nothing in the draft to address their linebacking needs. The Skins are still going with Holcomb, Davis, and Mayo as their backer trio and they still have Davis listed as the Mike. Injuries decimated their linebacking play last season but so did poor execution. It got so bad that at some points they were running a 5-1-5 defensive scheme with only Holcomb holding down the fort. Seeing as how they should all be healthy for the first game of this season, the deciding factor will be whether Jamin Davis has matured enough this off-season to actually run the defense at Mike. If he hasn’t learned the ropes of middle linebacker then it seems Jacksonville has been given a gift of which they need to take full advantage. Washington’s D-line is competent and Chase Young is dominant. In addition, their corners and safeties are decent. They are led by Kendall Fuller, who will always have a place in my heart seeing as he is also a VT Hokie. With that in mind, Jacksonville needs to exploit the weakest link. It would appear as though Daniel Snyder held his defense by the linebackers whilst dipping it in the River Styx. You want to know how to defeat Washington? Here is the winning game plan for our Jacksonville Jaguars to walk out of Fed-Ex field with a victory.
On offense, double team Chase Young. At the very least bump and run him with Evan Engram. Release Engram over the middle or into the flat, for the quick dump-offs. Pad Trevor’s stat sheet and build his confidence. Do the same with Etienne and Robinson. Have them hit the edge rushers and head to the flat. You can also keep your tight end and running backs at home to help hold the pocket and run some short, over the middle passing routes to Kirk, Jones, and Jones Jr. Throw some middle screens or pound the ball straight at them. Don’t try to get the edge, Washington has speed there. Play their strengths to your advantage and pound it inside. Most importantly, and I can’t stress this enough, confuse the Mike. Get in the head of Jamin Davis pre-snap. Run a ton of motion, move people around, show him packages he has never seen. Always keep him a step behind before the ball is even snapped, and then relentlessly attack him. Use the receivers to take the Skins DBs far down the field while Lawrence drops it off underneath. Build up that after-the-catch yardage. Heck, if Travis Etienne is 100% (one reason I need a media pass to the on-field workouts) then let’s find out if their linebackers can cover 4.31 speed. Work smarter not harder. This game plan will work wonders for Jacksonville offensive confidence while simultaneously making Snyder wish he had drafted Lloyd and Muma. This, folks, is how you beat Washington’s defense.
On the opposite side of the ball, it sounds like a cop out to say, but, get to Wentz. I know that is the answer to every defensive scheme, but Jacksonville did it in the final game against the Colts last year and with their newly acquired, and more dominant 2022 defense, they can do it more often and more easily against Washington this year. This is a critical part of Jacksonville’s success because while Washington was stupid to skip on linebackers, they did upgrade an impressive receiving core. I know Jacksonville made some good moves in the defensive back realm, but McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel can’t be stopped if Wentz has time. Those receivers are the highlight of the Skins team. Jacksonville must pressure Wentz all game long to have a chance. I’ve been reading the columns from Washington sports writers all week and they think this win is in the bag for DC. They are already looking ahead to week two.
So to sum up, confuse and exploit Washington linebackers. Short passes, screens, and a north/south, up the gut, running game for Jacksonville’s offense. On defense, use the Jag’s speed and power to collapse the pocket and hurry Wentz into bad decisions. Washington did little to improve their defense this year, they are counting on Wentz to be the missing piece of the puzzle. Lucky for the Jags, they already know how to get in his head. And one more thing you need to please always remember and never forget, play smart with special teams and get your boys the short field with which to work. Special teams is always the behind the scenes group that sets the stage for a win or loss.
You want a prediction? Fine. This one is gonna hurt me more than it hurts you. IF…..IF Pederson reads this column and follows my game plan, then I think the Jags pull this off in a low scoring affair 17-10. If he doesn’t (then he seriously needs to consider hiring me), and he allows this game to become a shoot-out, I don’t see Jacksonville’s offense keeping up and they’ll return to TIAA 0-1. The outcome of this game falls squarely on the shoulders of both teams' linebacking crew. Jacksonville’s linebackers need to showcase their above average speed and power by forcing Wentz to get happy feet. They need to take Washington’s premiere wide receivers out of the game. Make them a non-factor by not allowing the ball to even head their way. These young Jax ‘backers need to make the naysayers understand why three of the four were taken so high in this year's draft. On the flip side, Jacksonville’s offense needs to exploit Washington’s below average ‘backer core. The name of the game is pre-snap confusion, confusion, confusion. This match up really comes down to which team drafted better in 2022.
As always, full throated agreements and pats on the back, as well as, concisely crafted, well reasoned disagreements, though obviously incorrect, are still welcomed below: