Jaguars vs Broncos at Wembley

JT: The Jaguars host(?) The Denver Broncos in London

This Sunday in London, England Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars will host DangerRuss Wilson and the Denver Broncos. A couple weeks ago I would have said that this game plays right into Jacksonville’s strengths, but now I’m not so sure. The Jaguars defense showed their achilles heel against the Indianapolis Colts (short crossing patterns) during one of Matt Ryan’s greatest career passing games. That game also became Ryan’s swan song of sorts as he was benched, forever, shortly after. Unfortunately, it seems Matt Ryan is done in the NFL. The Colts reaction to Matt Ryan having a career game at TIAA Bank, by relegating him to back-up duty, still makes zero sense. Alas, I’m not an NFL coach or GM (though I often feel I should be). As we were saying before the crazy Colts tangent, the Jaguars defense was phenomenal during the first five games of the season. They were dominating the takeaway fight. They were holding opposing runners to well under 100 yards, and bad guy receivers weren’t exactly having a field day either. But now that the Colts have deciphered the code (before Matty Ice was so unceremoniously screwed over) the blueprint on how to beat the Jaguars is out. The NFL is a copycat league so you better believe that Russell Wilson will put his Dangerwich down long enough to study up on the short pass. This Sunday at 9:30am Eastern time we will all see if four straight hours of over the pond high knees pays off for Russ and the Broncs.

With the above in mind, the Jaguars defense should dominate the struggling Denver offense. Denver and Russell Wilson, however, are looking at this London matchup as a get right game. On Twitter Jags fans are saying that it feels like the Broncos are treating the Jaguars as an easy homecoming game opponent. That’s slightly insulting to Jags fans, given that Vegas has Jacksonville favored to win. It is also a non-deserved feeling of overconfidence on Denver’s part. They certainly have not achieved anything of note this season that would give them even the faintest inkling that they can win any remaining game on their schedule, let alone this one. I go back to Eli’s comment on a recent Manningcast while watching the Broncos futility. Manning exclaimed that maybe the Broncos should have paid their kicker $240 million instead of Wilson. So far, Eli would have spent Denver’s money more efficiently than has the Broncos brass. It will be fun to see if a trip out of country can get Russell Wilson back on track or if the journey to Britain will get the once fear inducing Jags defense to perform up to their abilities.

Denver has some offensive issues beyond Wilson, however, including a running back controversy of sorts. They lost one of their starting backs, Javonte Williams, to a year ending knee injury. This contributed to my, and many others, sub-par fantasy season thus far. That leaves Melvin Gordon III as Denver’s main ball carrier. Or does it? 32 year-old Latavius Murray, out of UCF, has been poaching some of Gordon’s carries and TDs. Murray carried the ball 15 times against the Chargers, averaging 4.4 yards and totaling 66. He stole 8 runs for 24 yards and a TD when they played the NY Jets. Gordon had only 3 attempts against the Chargers and 11 against the Jets. Gordon hasn’t scored a TD since 9/25 against the 49ers. So read into that what you will, but we here at JaguarsTalk think the Broncos are switching things up, throwing everything but the kitchen sink at their team issues, and seeing what if anything helps to change their fortunes. We here at JaguarsTalk also believe that a new and experienced NFL coach would probably help, as well as more intelligent money men/decision makers who don’t throw around hundreds of millions for less than average results.

It would seem that even Denver’s once respected wide receivers have been bitten by the mediocrity bug, as they have severely underperformed this year. Courtland Sutton, who last year was always a solid and inexpensive wide receiver play for me in FanDuel when I was running out of cap space, has now become average at best. This year he has 34 receptions for 454 yards and only 1 TD. All of Suttons statistics are buried in the bottom half of all NFL wide receivers. Since the Broncos last win against the 49ers in September, Sutton has caught around or fewer than 50% of his targets for yardage too low to even garner a mention (in SanFrancisco he achieved 97 yards and was 8 for 10). Jerry Jeudy has fewer receptions and yards but 1 more touchdown than Sutton. Unlike Sutton who seems to be getting worse as the season goes on, Jeudy seems to be slightly improving. In his last game against NYJ, Jeudy went 7 for 11 for 96 yards. Is the problem with the receivers, the running backs, Russell Wilson, or his protection? Whichever, or all, the Jaguars defense has the ability to pinpoint Denver’s offensive issues and exploit them. A struggling offense against a recently struggling defense sets the stage for half of this Sunday’s London NFL matchup.

On the other side of the ball us fans will have an equally exciting game to watch. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are facing off against Denver’s solid defense. For everything the Bronco’s offense is not, Denver’s defense is, and more. Like Jacksonville, Denver runs a 3-4 D with consistently good linebackers, Alex Singleton, Josey Jewell and Bradley Chubb. Trevor Lawrence will have to get rid of the ball quickly and efficiently much like he’s been able to do the past few weeks. One problem that Trevor will encounter in the Jags passing game is cornerback Pat Surtain II. Surtain is arguably the best lockdown cornerback in the entire NFL. He is currently the lone bright spot on this Denver Broncos team. Lawrence has a lot of experience facing top NFL cornerbacks this year. Philadelphia has Darius Slay and James Bradberry (arguably the best DB duo in the NFL), the latter to whom Lawrence threw a redzone INT. When the Houston Texans came to Jacksonville they brought cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. (one of the best corners in the league) to whom Lawrence also threw an INT, this time in the end zone. So Trevor Lawrence is no stranger to excellent NFL defensive backs and I’m sure Surtain is salivating over the opportunity to fluster the Jags QB when down in the compressed red zone area. 

For Jacksonville’s part, Trevor Lawrence will have to be smart with the ball. Throw it away or run it. Doug Pederson will have to take points when he can get them and not force fourth down attempts in field goal range. Both of these teams need a Dub this Sunday to avoid a downward spiral from which neither will escape, relegating the remainder of the season to playing for a 2023 draft choice. If the Jacksonville offense plays the same game that they played over the previous two weeks in losses to the Colts and the Giants, they will have done what is necessary to beat the Broncos. However, they could probably afford to convert TDs more often when down in the red zone. That seems to be a bit of a problem for the Jag offense when the field becomes smaller.

Oddly enough the very thing around which the Jaguars were built this year has been their downfall as of late. The JAX defense has dropped the ball two weeks in a row when the offense has excelled. If Jacksonville can put it all together (O and D) during the same game then good things can happen for this squad. Josh Allen and Travon Walker both need to turn pressures into sacks. Tre Herndon and Darious Williams are two spotlighted corners that are tasked to replace an injured and often sub-par Shaq Griffin in the Jacksonville secondary. With the exception of an early TD pass in the NY Giants game, they seemed to have buckled down, though the Giants don’t have the talent at WR that the Broncos do. In switching back to the Jags offense, I expect to see a healthy dose of Travis Etienne, who I hope has Tiki Barbered his ball carrying method so as not to fumble (he has lost the ball a lot considering his small number of carries this year) into the endzone instead of scoring six for JAX.

There are three keys to a Jacksonville victory. The first is the offense must play as efficiently as they have the past two weeks. The second is the defense must return to the dominating form they displayed in the first several weeks of the season. The third and final key to a Jags victory is to win the turnover game. Included in this last key is not turning the ball over in the red zone. The Jaguars have a habit of shooting themselves in the foot. Whether it be fumbles and INTs costing Jacksonville touchdowns, or stupid penalties (I’m looking at you, #44 & #23) extending opposing drives. The Jags can not sabotage their success in London if they want to make that long flight home as a winner. 

Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below.