Jaguars @ Chargers
JT: So you’re saying there’s a chance
This Sunday at SoFi Stadium the Jacksonville Jaguars will take on the Los Angeles Chargers. While it remains to be seen if both Keenan Allen and Justin Herbert will actually play, it is an absolute that neither will be at 100% if they take the field. The Jaguars, on the other hand, are completely healthy and coming off their most dominating performance in four years. The key to victory for either team is exactly the same. It is the front sevens ability to contain the run game and get to the quarterback. We will dive deeper in the nuances of this, because I have nothing better to do with my time, but that is the entire game right there. You have my blessing to stop reading and go about your day.
In order for the Chargers to beat Jacksonville they will rely on their phenomenal edge rushers Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. Both are multi-year veterans with impressive stat sheets. I think Bosa has 50+ sacks in his career and Mack has an amazing 80 or so. To think that these guys are not going to sack Trevor Lawrence on Sunday would be a bet I’m not willing to make. This may very well be the most difficult game of the entire season for the Jags offensive line. Cam Robinson (JAX LT) and Jawaan Taylor (JAX RT) are in for one hell of a ride. The name of this game if I am Press Taylor (JAX OC) is get the ball out of Lawrence’s hand as quickly as possible. Robinson and Taylor are good but Mack and Bosa are the best edge rushing duo in the league. Jacksonville needs to take advantage of their aggressiveness and use it against them. I see screens in our future, and why not? The Jags tried them out in game two against the Colts and they worked tremendously well.
Jumping to Jacksonville’s defense. They have two very good edge rushers themselves. One might argue that number one draft pick, Travon Walker and four-year vet, Josh Allen, will soon be dethroning Bosa and Mack as the best edge rush duo in the NFL. They are too new, with too small a body of work, to take the title but that doesn’t mean they aren’t gonna get there eventually. JT believes that Jacksonville’s front seven, as a whole, is better than LAs. We also believe that the Chargers offense is better than Jacksonville’s. HOWEVER, and this is a very big however. If I were coaching the Chargers, I wouldn’t care about the outcome of this game. Jacksonville is out of conference and there is no point in risking Herbert’s (fractured rib cartilage) and Allen’s (Hammy) health to play this Sunday. Why not give them an extra week to heal so they can play the rest of the season rather than play them at less than 100% and risk further injury that has them sidelined for future divisional games. For this reason, we believe that Herbert and Allen will be riding pine and the Jaguars will be facing perennial back-up, the man who has been stealing money from the NFL for years, Chase Daniel. If we are correct in our assessment of the Chargers offense, then this will certainly level the playing field.
LA running back, Austin Ekeler and Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams will be the two most potent offensive weapons for LA. At the risk of sounding repetitive, Jacksonville’s defense was (say it with me) built to stop Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry, so Austin Ekeler should be no different. Now, Mike Williams, and I’ll even throw tight end, Gerald Everett into the mix, (and Allen if he plays) may be cause for concern. Jacksonville’s secondary didn’t face much pressure in their week two win against the Colts (their top two receivers were injured). They did, however, face a trio of really good receivers in week one against Washington (Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson, Terry McLaurin), and the Jags secondary didn’t fare so well. With Keenan Allen sitting the bench (again if we are wrong about that he certainly won’t be 100%) and either Chase Daniel or an injured Justin Herbert tossing the pigskin, the Jags DBs have a shot to take Mike Williams out of the game. If Ekeler is subdued by the front seven and Williams is covered by Shaq Griffin, Rayshawn Jenkins, and #32 Tyson Campbell, then this game just got extremely interesting.
It is JaguarsTalks belief that this game’s deciding factor is Jacksonville’s offensive line (this is the nuance that I spoke about in the opening paragraph). Will they give Trevor Lawrence enough time to move the ball down the field? Let’s take a look at how Lawrence and the Jaguars can put points on the board against the much-improved Chargers defense. T-Law needs to get rid of the ball faster than Adam Levine DMs a hot girl on the socials. If Lawrence takes more than a three-step drop, he’s getting sacked. If not a short drop for T-Law then I foresee a lot of double-aught buck in the Jags future. I see a lot of screen passes to both Robinson, Etienne and Arnold or Engram. I would hope we don’t see Lawrence tucking and running like we did against the Colts. It sort of seems that the game plan put in place against Indianapolis should work against LA this weekend. The Colts had a bend don’t break defense where they allowed short passes and the Jags took advantage. While LA’s defense plays more like Washingtons in terms of aggressiveness, short and quick passes would contend against that style of defense as well. This is not necessarily a bad thing as Jacksonville figured out how to put points on the board against the Commanders in the second half of that game.
Nobody likes the fact that LA will not be 100% healthy, whether Herbert and Allen play or not. Teams always want to beat other teams when they are at their best. Facing Chase Daniel and being down Keenan Allen would make LA more vulnerable to a Jacksonville defense that is stronger than people think. This JAX defense is like Michigan’s Fab Five. Sometimes, no matter the age or level of experience, a group just clicks. The 2022 JAX defense is such a group. Just don’t let them call any phantom timeouts. That said, let’s look at the key factor for Jacksonville to even have a chance at having a chance to possibly win this game.
As stated in the beginning of this article, the front seven of both teams are the key to victory, thus stopping the Charger’s edge rushers is the only way Jacksonville wins Sunday. Stop is the wrong word. They won’t be able to stop them, but they need to slow down Bosa and Mack long enough for Lawrence to make good decisions. I don’t even think the Jags have to run the ball exceptionally well in this game. I think they need to do what they did in the first two games. Continue to keep the defense honest by running often, but the main crux of their offensive success is slowing down LAs edge guys. This game is in the hands of Cam Robinson and Jawaan Taylor. We can also assume some double teaming with tight ends and guards as well. Thus, Engram, Arnold, Scherff, and Bartch, with additional pass blocking by James Robinson will be greatly appreciated. Basically, everyone but Luke Fortner, who I guess can just Netflix and chill after snapping the ball. I realize that LAs DBs are also pretty solid. Asante Samuel is a shutdown type corner, but what we’ve been shown so far this season is that Christian Kirk can’t be covered. He and the Jonses are all more slot receivers than long bomb threats, which plays perfectly well with the successful dink and dunk game that Pederson called against Indy. That in turn fits nicely with the fact that Lawrence needs to get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible. We here at JT are all for another game with several play, several minute Jacksonville drives. Patience will be key to the Jaguars offensive success.
To sum up, the main key to Jacksonville’s success in the game against LA is slowing down Bosa and Mack and that means great offensive line play. I see no reason why the Chargers offense with, at best, an injured Allen and Herbert presents any more of a threat than did the Commanders. I would bet the Jaguars won’t give away another game like they did that one. My analysis has not, but my score prediction has changed since we wrote the first Jaguars @ Chargers summary back when the schedule was announced. It is worth a read as it gives a lot of good insight into this match-up. JaguarsTalk believes that with the Chargers current injuries and the fact that, if they are smart, they won’t even play Herbert or Allen, Jacksonville walks out of SoFi with a win. Jaguars 27 - Chargers 20. I reversed the scores from our earlier write-up, which I am sure you are going to go read right now.
Let us know what you think in the comment section below. One thing is for sure, we are going to get a very good understanding of just how good Jacksonville is by the end of this game.